A new survey conducted by Piper Jaffray’s analyst Michael Olson asked around 1,500 participants why they did not upgrade to the iPhone X. The results were very interested, with 44 percent saying they did not upgrade because their iPhone worked fine.
Another 31 percent did not upgrade to the iPhone X because it was too expensive, while 17 percent did not upgrade for other reasons. Lastly, 8 percent of the consumers decided against buying the iPhone X because they wanted a larger screen.
Interestingly, with Apple working on a cheaper 6.1-inch iPhone along with a 6.5-inch iPhone X Plus for 2018, the company would address the concerns of 40 percent of consumers who were a part of this poll. Overall, the analysts expect that the new strategy will allow Apple to ship around 233.8 million iPhones in FY18-19. And if Apple does not release three new iPhones as rumored, “there’s going to be hell to pay.”
Given the next release of iPhones this Fall will likely address both of these issues, we are increasingly confident in our FY19 iPhone estimate of 233.8M, which is ~7M (3%) above consensus (227M). We believe FY19 will provide evidence of the “super-long” cycle we expect will play out as users migrate to “X-gen” devices over a multi-year period.
This has also led the analyst to lower their iPhone shipment forecast for FY18 to 226.3 million units, down from the original estimate of 230 million.
Many existing iPhone owners have voiced concerns about the iPhone X being too expensive or packing a smaller screen. Thus, when Apple addresses these issues with its 2018 iPhone lineup, it is a given that the company should see a rise in overall iPhone sales for the year.
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