Many analysts believe that Apple could sell nearly 180 million iPhones as millions of existing iPhone users will upgrade to a newer device, with majority of the demand coming from China. This is despite the U.S.-China trade war and Apple struggling in China in recent quarters.
Wedbush analysts believe that Apple can sell nearly 180 million iPhones over the next year, with around 60-70 million units being sold in China itself as many existing iPhone users are due for an upgrade.
As per their supply-chain check, Apple is looking to produce 75 million iPhone 11 units during the launch period which is higher than the iPhone XS cycle last year. Apple also has the room to increase production to 80 million units if the demand is more than what is anticipated.
Apple currently has about 900 million active iPhones globally and the combination of slack sales for its iPhone X launches since 2017 and relatively tight control of pricing may spur demand from users who have been holding out previously, several analysts said.
Apple has dropped support for some popular older iPhone models like the iPhone 5s, iPhone 6, and iPhone 6 Plus with iOS 13. The release of the OS to the public next week will compel a barrage of older iPhone users to upgrade to a newer model. It might not necessarily be the iPhone 11 as Apple will drop the prices of the existing iPhones which would then make them a more attractive proposition for many.
Despite millions of older iPhone users in China not getting the iOS 13 update, I am not sure if iPhone sales in the country will pick up anytime soon. The new iPhones are not going to come with reverse wireless charging and are going to be all about their camera performance. Apple has been lagging behind Huawei and Google in the camera department and it is unclear if the new iPhones will be able to rival their camera performance.
Then there’s also the fact that there is currently a pro-Huawei wave in China due to the company being banned by the United States. Thus, many Chinese consumers would look to upgrade from their iPhone to the Huawei Mate 30 series instead of a newer iPhone.