Goldman Sachs is expecting iPhone shipments to drop by 36% in Q3 due to the coronavirus outbreak. It also believes that Apple will only get around to launching its iPhone 12 lineup in November as the global travel limitations have hampered its final engineering and production process.
Goldman Sachs notes that the ASP (Average Selling Price) of smartphones will decline this year due to the global recession. This will lead many people to postpone their new iPhone purchase to next year or opt for cheaper models like the recently launched iPhone SE. Apple, however, will not lose its customer base due to the strong level of loyalty among them.
“We do not assume that this downturn results in Apple losing users from its installed base. We simply assume that existing users will keep devices longer and choose less expensive Apple options when they do buy a new device,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.
So far, there have been contradicting rumors on whether the launch of the iPhone 12 for a fall launch is on track or not. Some rumors claim that the launch is still on track for a September launch as Apple and its supply-chain partners have enough time to finalize the design and start the mass production of components despite a few weeks of delay due to the virus outbreak. Recently though, many analysts have claimed that Apple would announce the iPhone 12 lineup in fall, but delay their release by a few weeks. Similar to the iPhone X launch in 2017, while the device would be announced in September, the premium iPhone 12 Pro lineup will go on sale in October.[Via Reuters]